The official nominations have been released. Here I'll list the nominations in the categories that interest me and give my brief thoughts. Italicized is the movie I think should win. Bolded is the movie I think probably will win. Full list of categories and nominations here: http://oscar.go.com/ [b]Best Picture:[/b] Black Swan The Fighter [i]Inception[/i] The Kids Are All Right The King's Speech 127 Hours [b]The Social Network[/b] Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter's Bone For one in my life I've actually seen most of nominees (all except The Fighter and 127 Hours) and I think they are all good movies, except The Kids Are All Right which I didn't like. However it's this year's Little Miss Sunshine which means it will probably take a screenplay award for being about lesbians and it has a shot at the actress and supporting actor categories. We'll get to that. Actually glad to see Winter's Bone pick up a nomination. Toy Story 3 is a nice nod though it has absolutely zero chance of winning this category and absolutely zero chance of losing the Animated Film category. I think the real contenders here are The Social Network, which I highly favored before seeing the nomination, and The King's Speech, which is nominated for 12 total awards which shows it has more momentum than I previously guessed. Even though I'm saying I preferred Inception it has no chance of winning this category and TSN and TKS are both great movies (TSN more so) so I doubt I'll be too disappointed here. [b]Actor in a Leading Role[/b] Javier Bardem - Biutiful Jeff Bridges - True Grit Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network [i][b]Colin Firth - The King's Speech[/b][/i] James Franco - 127 Hours Firth is almost a lock for this one. Seeing the King's Speech get so many nominations shows people think highly of it, and Firth's award is surely the front runner in terms of the movie's honors. It's his to lose. Outside shot at Franco. [b]Actor in a Supporting Role[/b] [b]Christian Bale - The Fighter[/b] John Hawkes - Winter's Bone Jeremy Renner - The Town Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right [i]Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech[/i] I feel like it's Bale's year. He's been doing notable performances forever, and while I haven't seen him in an Oscar-worthy role before, you could tell from the advertising campaign listing Mark Wahlberg as an award winner that he was getting a shot here. Unfortunately his is the only performance on the list I haven't seen, so I couldn't tell you how it stacks up. Out of the ones I've seen, I loved Rush in TKS so if he won I would consider that justic. Nevertheless all are good. Renner and Ruffalo are probably the weakest. The biggest snub here is Andrew Garfield in The Social Network. Surprised he didn't receive a nomination, maybe over Renner since The Town wasn't nominated for best picture. [b]Actress in a Leading Role[/b] Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone [i][b]Natalie Portman - Black Swan[/b][/i] Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine Of the three performances I've seen I like Portman, but I would be happy if Jennifer Lawrence picked up the award. Her portrayal of Ree in WB was spot on. The real competition though is going to be Annette Bening, and I'll be a little upset if that happens. [b]Actress in a Supporting Role[/b] Amy Adams - The Fighter Helena Boham Carter - The King's Speech [b]Melissa Leo - The Fighter[/b] [i]Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit[/i] Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom This is strong category, excepting Bonham Carter who frankly does not belong. I loved Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, though she should have been nominated for Lead Actress. Weaver was also good in Animal Kingdom, but I think a nom is all she'll get. The biggest problem with my acting predictions is that they pretty much mirror the Golden Globes, and I suspect that there will be at least one upset. Probably in one of the actress categories. Hard call. [b]Animated Feature Film[/b] How to Train Your Dragon The Illusionist [b][i]Toy Story 3[/i][/b] Toy Story 3. Why are we even talking about this? [b]Directing[/b] Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan David O. Russell - The Fighter Tom Hooper - The King's Speech [b]David Fincher - The Social Network[/b] Joel and Ethan Coen - True Grit Fincher is the likely winner for this. He's always been a stylish director - it's just taken a while for him to do a film that appeals to the academy. The real underdog is the Coens for True Grit. No way they will win, especially after No Country for Old Men a couple of years ago. The biggest snub here is that Christopher Nolan was not nominated for Inception, and this is not Inception's only snub. It was also left out of the editing category. I'm okay with Fincher winning, but dang it, Nolan deserved a nomination. I'm not listing all the film editing or art direction nominees, but I want to say I am disappointed (though not surprised) that the very worthy Scott Pilgrim vs. The World was not considered for either award. [b]Visual Effects[/b] Alice in Wonderland Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I Hereafter [b][i]Inception[/i][/b] Iron Man 2 I actually do see Inception picking up this award. After all it's deserving. It's received 8 nominations, it has to win a couple. Possibly original score (Zimmer) though TSN could pick that up too. Possibly sound editing or mixing. Hereafter is a weird choice and should have been replaced with Tron Legacy or Scott Pilgrim. [b]Writing - Adapted Screenplay[/b] 127 Hours [b][i]The Social Network[/i][/b] Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter's Bone The screenplay was possibly The Social Network's biggest strength, so I would be surprised if Sorkin didn't take home a statue for it. [b]Writing - Original Screenplay[/b] Another Year The Fighter [i]Inception[/i] The Kids Are All Right [b]The King's Speech[/b] I'm going to be uncommonly optimistic and say that an actually good screenplay will win, even if it's not my favorite one. The King's Speech being nominated so many times gives me hope it may win this award, over my original pick The Kids Are All Right. I still fear TKAAR will steal Portman's statue instead of this one, and I guess I'd prefer to see it win in this category if anywhere. Again, Inception will be honored with a nom but not take the win. Well that's all the ones I feel like writing about. Feel free to comment on anything to do with the Oscars or these films in this topic.